Benchmark Independent 5-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for South Africa to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of the latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects, and investments in South Africa.
Exploit the Latest Competitive South African Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in South Africa.
Key Insights into the Oil & Gas Sector of South Africa
The latest South Africa Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 5.07% of MEA regional oil demand by 2010, with negligible domestic crude production, but a growing synthetic oil capability. MEA regional oil demand rose to 10.7mn b/d last year and should average 10.9mn b/d in 2006, before reaching 12.20mn b/d by 2010. MEA gas consumption in 2005 was 343bcm, with demand of 533bcm targeted for 2010. Production last year of 448bcm should reach 774bcm by the end of the decade. South Aftrica’s share of consumption in 2005 was just 0.87%, while it made no appreciable contribution to supply. By 2010, its share of demand is forecast to be 1.88%, with the country accounting still accounting for less than 1.0% of regional gas production.
Assuming an uneventful Q4, we are now predicting an OPEC basket price for 2006 averaging US$61.10/bbl – an increase of US$1.10 from our June forecast. This also represents a 19% rise from the FY05 average. Our forecasts for the US, Brent and Urals are US$66.40, US$65.40 and US$61.60/bbl respectively. For 2007, we continue to assume an OPEC basket price of US$50/bbl, which implies US$55.40 for the US, US$53.40 for Brent and US$49.50 for Urals. Prices are then forecast to fall by around US$5/bbl in 2008-2010, with the OPEC price averaging US$45/bbl over the period.
South African real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 4.1% for 2006, following 4.9% in 2005. We are assuming 5.0% growth in 2007 and 4.2% in 2008, followed by 3.8% in 2009 and 3.7% in 2010. We expect oil demand to rise from 529,000b/d last year to 616,000b/d in 2010, representing 3.0% annual growth that lags our underlying economic assumptions. There is virtually no domestic crude production, although national companies contribute some 220,000b/d of synthetic oil output. IOCs are restricted largely to roles in oil refining and fuels distribution. Gas production should reach 5bcm by 2010, up from 1bcm last year. Consumption is expected to rise from 3bcm to 10bcm by the end of the forecast period, requiring imports of 5bcm.
In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, South Africa this quarter receives an unchanged composite score of 38, which still ranks the country fourth out of 16 states included in the MEA region. The overall business environment can be considered attractive in a regional context, thanks largely to relatively low levels of perceived economic and political risk, plus a benign competitive landscape and an effective production sharing/licensing framework.
Summary of key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
Analyzes and forecasts oil prices out to 2011, monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
Forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS:
Chapter1 - Executive Summary
Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis
South Africa Economic SWOT
South Africa Political SWOT
South Africa Business Environment SWOT
Chapter 3 - Regional Market Overview
Middle East/Africa Region
Table: MEA Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Middle East/Africa Oil Production (000b/d)
Table: Middle East/Africa Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Table: Middle East/Africa Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Middle East/Africa Gas Production (bcm)
Table: Middle East/Africa LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Chapter 4 - Business Environment Rankings
Middle East/Africa Region
Chapter 5 - South Africa Business Environment Ranking
Economics – long-term risk
Politics – long-term risk
Oil & Gas Growth
Chapter 6 - Business Environment Overview
Political Risk Summary
Economic Risk Summary
Business Environment Risk Summary
Foreign Direct Investment
Chapter 7 - Oil Market Outlook
Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2006
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Chapter 8 - Regional Supply and Demand
Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Middle East/Africa
Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Middle East/Africa
Chapter 9 - Global Picture
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Chapter 10 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Reserves
Oil Supply and Demand
Gas Supply and Demand
Refining and Oil Products Trade
Table: South Africa Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts
Table: South Africa Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Chapter 11 - Economic Outlook
Table: Economic Indicators
Chapter 12 - Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data
Section 1: Population:
Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown
Section 2: Education & Healthcare
Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics
Table: Healthcare: Expenditure
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators
Table: Consumption and Stratification
Table: Wages per year
Chapter 13 - Regional Case Study
Global Player With Conflicting Domestic Needs
Chapter 14 - Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players – South African Oil & Gas Sectors
Engen – Summary
Sasol – Summary
Table: Key Upstream Players
Shell – Summary
Total – Summary
BP – Summary
Table: Key Downstream Players
Caltex – Summary
Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Chapter 16 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data
The Long View: Data Over The Economic Cycle (2000-2007)
Household Spending Per Capita, US$
Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP
Market Size, GDP, US$bn
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