Benchmark Independent 5-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Philippines to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippines oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of the latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects, and investments in Philippines.
Exploit the Latest Competitive Philippines Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Philippines.
Key Insights into the Oil & Gas Sector of Philippines
The latest Philippines Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.28% of Asia/Pacific regional oil demand by 2010, while providing 0.77% of supply. Asia/Pacific regional oil demand rose to an estimated 24.74mn b/d last year and should average 25.36mn b/d in 2007, before reaching 27.64mn b/d by 2010. Asia/Pacific gas consumption in 2006 is estimated at 419bcm, with demand of 602bcm targeted for 2010. Production last year of 342bcm should reach 490bcm by the end of the decade. The Philippines’ share of consumption in 2006 was an estimated 1.43%, while its share of production is put at 1.75%. By 2010, its share of demand is forecast to be 5.81%, with the country accounting for 7.14% of supply.
For the whole of last year, our preliminary estimates of average prices are US$61.30 per barrel for the OPEC basket, US$65.03 for Brent, US$66.24/bbl for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For 2007, the revised BMI forecasts are for the OPEC basket to average US$55 per barrel. Based on last year’s typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.72, WTI averaging US$59.94/bbl, and Urals at US$55 per barrel. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will slip from US$55/bbl this year to US$50 in 2008, before settling around US$45/bbl in 2009/2010.
The Philippines’ real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 4.9% for 2007, down from an estimated 5.2% in 2006. We are assuming 4.5% growth in 2008, followed by 4.3% in 2009/10. There is IOC and national company (PNOC) involvement in domestic upstream activities, leading to substantial gas output growth and some modest liquids expansion. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 60,000b/d by 2010/11, with the country pumping an estimated 56,000b/d last year. Consumption is forecast to increase by 1-3% per annum to 2010, implying demand of 366,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 306,000b/d by 2011. Gas supply and demand is forecast to increase from an estimated 6bcm last year to 40bcm by 2011.
In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, the Philippines receives an unchanged composite score of 30 which now ranks the country equal ninth out of 14 states included in the Asia/Pacific region, alongside Pakistan and Japan. The overall business environment can be considered neutral in a regional context, thanks largely to a particularly high level of perceived long-term economic risk offsetting a respectable rate of upstream oil and gas output growth, an above-average reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) and a benign regulatory/competitive regime. The licensing and production sharing system is acceptable, but opportunities are somewhat limited in the upstream segment. Royal Dutch Shell’s Malampaya project is providing healthy output growth and accounts for the strong reserves position. The downstream oil market is very competitive and delivers below average returns to domestic companies and IOCs.
Summary of key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
Analyzes and forecasts oil prices out to 2011, monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
Forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
Add to Cart
Doing Business in Asia
Doing Business with China
The China Oil & Gas Report
Who's Who in the CIS Oil & Gas Industry
All Energy Resources
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
Chapter 1 - Executive Summary
Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis
Philippines Economic SWOT
Philippines Political SWOT
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT
Chapter 3 - Regional Market Overview
Table: Asia/Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Asia/Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
Table: Asia/Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Table: Asia/Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Asia/Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
Table: Asia/Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Chapter 4 - Business Environment Rankings
Chapter 5 - Philippines Business Environment Ranking
Economics – Long-Term Risk
Politics – Long-Term Risk
Oil & Gas Growth
Chapter 6 - Business Environment Overview
Political Risk Summary
Economic Risk Summary
Business Environment Risk Summary
Foreign Direct Investment
Chapter 7 - Oil Market Outlook
Assessing The Risks
Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2007
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Chapter 8 - Regional Supply and Demand
Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Asia/Pacific
Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Asia/Pacific
Chapter 9 - Global Picture
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Chapter 10 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Reserves
Oil Supply and Demand
Gas Supply and Demand
Refining and Oil Products Trade
Table: Philippines Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Philippines Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts
Key Risks to Forecast Scenario
Chapter 11 - Economic Outlook
Table: Philippines: Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts
Chapter 12 - Regional Case Study – ConocoPhillips
Table: Exploration And Production 2005
Table: Commercial Realisation – Refining And Marketing 2005
Chapter 13 - Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players – Philippines Oil & Gas Sector
Petron – Summary
Shell – Summary
Chevron – Summary
Table: Key Upstream Players
PTT – Summary
Total – Summary
Others – Summary
Kogas – Summary
Table: Key Downstream Players
PetroEnergy – Summary
Chapter 14 - Company Monitor
Philippines National Oil Company (PNOC)
Pilipinas Shell Petroleum
Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Purchase The Philipines Oil & Gas Report with absolutely no risk. If you are not completely satisfied with your report, simply return it within 14 Days for a full refund.
Purchase The Philipines Oil & Gas Report only for $895.