Benchmark Independent 5-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Kazakhstan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kazakhstan oil and gas market.

Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of the latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects, and investments in Kazakhstan. 

Exploit the Latest Competitive Kazakhstan Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Kazakhstan.

OVERVIEW:

Key Insights into the Oil & Gas Sector of Kazakhstan

The latest Kazakhstan Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 4.8% of CEE regional oil demand by 2010, while providing 14.6% of supply. CEE regional oil demand rose to 5.1mn barrels per day (b/d) last year and should average 5.2mn b/d in 2006, before reaching 5.9mn b/d by 2010. Production of 12.0mn b/d last year is forecast to reach 14.7mn b/d by 2010. CEE gas consumption in 2005 was 571bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 688bcm targeted for 2010. Production last year of 670bcm should reach 743bcm by the end of the decade. Kazakhstan's share of consumption in 2005 was 3.2%, while its share of production was 3.7%. By 2010, its share of demand is forecast to be 3.9%, with the country accounting for 7.4% of supply.

Assuming an uneventful Q4, we are now predicting an OPEC basket price for 2006 averaging US$61.10/bbl – an increase of US$1.10 from our June forecast. This also represents a 19% rise from the FY05 average. Our forecasts for the US, Brent and Urals are US$66.40, US$65.40 and US$61.60/bbl respectively. For 2007, we continue to assume an OPEC basket price of US$50/bbl, which implies US$55.40 for the US, US$53.40 for Brent and US$49.50 for Urals. Prices are then forecast to fall by around US$5/bbl in 2008-2010, with the OPEC price averaging US$45/bbl over the period.

Kazakhstan's real GDP growth is now forecast at 9.9% for 2006, up from 9.4% in 2005. We are assuming 8.8% growth in 2007, 9.1% in 2008, followed by 9.3% in 2009 and 9.7% in 2010. Consumption growth should accelerate with the improving economy, but is unlikely to have much negative impact on export potential. We are forecasting domestic oil demand reaching 286,000b/d by 2010. State-owned KazMunaiGaz accounts for 12% of oil production and participates in joint venture projects with international oil companies (IOCs), which should deliver rapid volume growth after the Karachaganak field builds up to full output in excess of 200,000b/d. Expansion of the Tengiz field and activation of the offshore Kashagan project are due to take place later in the decade, and these should push Kazakh production towards 2.15mn b/d by 2010. This implies that oil exports should rise from 1.16mn b/d last year to at least 1.86mn b/d by the end of the forecast period.

In the Business Environment Ranking matrix, Kazakhstan receives an unchanged composite score of 48, which continues to rank the country 1st out of 12 states included in the CEE region. The country's overall business environment can be considered highly attractive in a regional context, thanks largely to low levels of perceived economic and political risk, high levels of oil and gas output growth potential, substantial untapped resources, a healthy competitive framework and better-than-average licensing/production sharing terms.

Coverage includes:

Executive Summary
Summary of key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.

Oil Market Outlook
Analyzes and forecasts oil prices out to 2011, monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.

5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)

5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
Forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

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