RUSSIA/CASPIAN ENERGY INSIDER
Kazakhstan Reconsiders the Oil Production Forecast
Kazakhstan has reconsidered the oil production forecast through 2015, lowering it following the problems with the largest extraction project—Kashagan. “By 2010, the predicted oil recovery will total more than 80 million tons, and in 2015, it will reach 130 million tons with a domestic need of 25 million tons,” Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev declared. Earlier, assumptions put production by 2015 at 140-150 millions tons annually, with the country becoming one of the 10 largest oil exporters in the world. However, now plans call for entry into the top 10 only by 2017. The current Kazakh production level is 67 million tons of oil a year.
Until the last moment, the Kazakh administration did not speak about updating plans on 2015 oil production, despite the fact that Kashagan should provide almost half of the declared volume. Initially, Kashagan was to extract nearly 22 million tons in the first stage, 45 million tons in the second and by 2015 and the third stage, nearly 60 million tons of oil a year.
Oil and gas condensate production in 2006 increased 2.5 times over the result for 1997, totaling 64.8 million tons. Extraction of gas in 2006 increased over 3 times in comparison with 1997, amounting to 27 billion cubic meters. The volume of subsoil use investments was $14.5 billion in 2006, against $3.1 billion in 1997.
