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Analysis: Turkmen Explosion Intensifies Pipeline Politics
15 May 2009 09:27 AM
Excerpt from Caspian Investor by Kent F. Moors, Ph.D., Contributing Editor 
| An explosion on the Turkmen section of the Central-Asia-Center natural gas pipeline has significantly increased Turkmen-Russian tension. While the initial benefits go to Gazprom, the longerterm impact may well augur problems for Russia. It has already prompted Ashgabat to sign its first agreement on transporting gas to Europe via Nabucco, bypassing Russian territory. |
The facility with which Gazprom production responded to the accident caused some observers to question Russian motives. “The transition to Russian production was done quite seamlessly,” Mortimer Collins, gas program financial analyst at Emerging Market Finance in London, told Caspian Investor on April 23. “This has all the markings of an intentional move on the part of the Russian producer -- almost as if it were expected." There is no doubt, however, that Gazprom benefits from the accident, and in two ways. First, Turkmenistan has been straddling the line for some time between committing its western flow of gas exports. A year ago, that seemed to have been a done deal when Ashgabat agreed to construction of the 1,700-kilometer Near Caspian Gas Pipeline with Kazakhstan and Russia. However, Berdymukhammedov has consistently supported multiple export venues. Recently, he has moved from providing lip support to alternatives to coming closer to providing a volume estimate for Turkmen gas bypassing Russia on the Trans Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCGP), connecting to the Nabucco, or even the White Stream moving via Ukraine.“The explosion if nothing else is sure to be a policy wakeup call in Ashgabat,” Thierry Lefrancois, an analyst at Natexis Bleichroeder/Group Bank Populaire in Paris, told us on April 24. “This is all about moving Turkmen production to Europe and for the foreseeable future Russia is only the way to do that.” Read Related Articles Caspian Investor provides unequaled news and analysis of energy sector developments in the countries of Central Asia and the Caspian Sea region. Prepared by a seasoned staff of in-country journalists, only CI brings you the details you need to understand how regional developments will impact your business in this dynamic market. To Subscribe>
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