What Will Happen to US Trade Agenda This Year?
24 Aug 2008 10:46 PM

Excerpt from North American Free Trade & Investment Report by Steven J. Mulder (Greenberg Traurig)

It was with a certain amount of amusement -- if not disbelief -- when I recently read in an “Inside the Beltway” publication that there was “Still a Big Trade Agenda” for Congress to address this year. Huh? Really? While there may be a lot of trade legislation pending in Congress, it seems unlikely Congress will be able to approve much of it -- particularly before the elections -- in the current political environment, where anti-trade sentiment is clearly on the rise. For one thing, the “trade agenda” is largely a priority of the Bush White House and the Democrats are in no mood to grant anything the Administration wants in its remaining months. The Democrats in the House and Senate are expected to make major gains in the November elections and thus they seem willing to simply “wait out” President Bush on most major legislative initiatives, including trade-related measures.

The Colombia Free Trade Agreement is a perfect example. The agreement, concluded over a year-and-a-half ago, is strongly supported by the President, who rarely misses an opportunity to raise the importance of its passage.

The President formally presented the agreement under the so-called “fast track” rules for Congressional consideration of free trade agreements back in April (fast track protects free trade agreements from amendment and filibusters in the congress).

However, the President took his action without the consent of the Democratic leadership, which clearly does not want to have to deal with the agreement. No problem: Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-California) presented a Resolution to the House that simply removed fast track timeline (which vitiates the need for congress to consider it within 90 days), the Resolution passed with overwhelming Democratic support, and the agreement is now effectively “in limbo.”

Never mind that over 100 newspapers (even the New York Times!), too many former Democratic officials to count, and every business organization in the United States supports passage of the agreement -- unfortunately for the agreement, U.S. labor organizations have “drawn a line in the sand” against it and that would seem to be enough to stop its movement.

Supporters of the agreement are hoping that the Speaker will have a change of heart and allow the agreement to come up for a vote in a “lame duck” session of congress that would take place after the elections of November 4th. However, there is no assurance that such a session will take place. Democratic leaders are working hard to avoid such a scenario, but given that there is a range of “must pass” legislation that has to be enacted this year -- not the least of which are the 13 annual appropriations bill that keep the government running, none of which have been enacted at this point -- a lame duck session seems likely.

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